Monday, January 9, 2006

Illinois - Land of Lincoln (who would likely be happier with the state's new U.S. Senator than his own party)

ILLINOIS - THE PRAIRIE STATE

Illinois is the 8th most Democratic state, voting 12.1% more Dem than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Illinois is trending Democrat.

Governor: Rod Blagojevich is running for reelection. While Illinois is solidly blue, Blagojevich may not be safe, as his approval ratings are down and he has been accused of corruption. Challenging him is State Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka. Blago currently leads Topinka, but will be watched closely, as Topinka is part of that increasingly endangered species Republicanus Noncrazius.

Other Candidates
Randy Stufflebeam
Rich Whitney
Scott Summers

Governor (incumbent running)

Polling Company
Date
Blagojevich
TopinkaMargin
Chicago Tribune
9/7-10
45%
33%
12%
Rasmussen
9/7
48%
36%
12%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Poll Average
12 + 12
12
75%
9
Approval
44-52
-8
15%
1.2
Partisan leaning
42-24 DEM
-18
10%
1.8


Blagojevich will win by 9.6%

Senate: Senior Senator Dick Durbin is up for reelection in 2008 and junior Senator Barack Obama is up for reelection in 2010.
House: District 6: Henry Hyde is retiring. Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth has won the Dem nomination; on the GOP side is State Sen. Peter Roskam. This district in the western Chicago burbs has been trending less Republican in recent years. Also in the running is Brian Costin.

House (open seat)

Pundit
Prediction
Numerical Value
Charlie Cook
Toss-Up
0
Larry Sabato
Toss-Up
0
Cong Quarterly
Toss-Up
0
Election Predictions
Very Weak GOP
2.5
Blue In Texas
Very Weak GOP
2.5

Polling Company
Date
Duckworth
Roskam
Margin
Constituent Dynamics
8/27-29
47%
46%
1%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Pundit Average
(one poll)
0+0+0+2.5+2.5
170%
0.7
Poll Average
-1
-1
20%
0.2
Partisan leaning
PVI: +3 GOP
3
7%
0.21
Money advantage
1.49:1 Roskam
1.49
2%
0.03
Statewide incumbent approval
Blagojevich 44-52
-8
1%
0.08
Other issues
None





Roskam will win by 0.82%

District 8: This is the race to watch in Illinois, with a highly Republican district represented by a Democrat, Melissa Bean, who won only because of her unpopular, geriatric predecessor Phil Crane. Her vote for CAFTA may also hurt, as the unions are rallying behind Bill Scheurer. However, there are some things that may help her: the incumbent factor, Bush's abysmal poll numbers in Illinois, and her incredible fundraising. David McSweeny was neck-and-neck with Bean in funds, but spent a lot of it in the crowded primary. Bean also has support from most of the country club Republicans in the district as well as an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.

House (incumbent running)

Pundit
Prediction
Numerical Value
Charlie Cook
Lean DEM
5
Larry Sabato
Toss-Up
0
Cong Quarterly
Lean DEM
5
Election Predictions
Very Weak DEM
2.5
Blue In Texas
Very Weak DEM
2.5

Polling Company
Date
Bean
McSweeny
Margin
Constituent Dynamics
8/27-29
48%
45%
3%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Pundit Average
(one poll)
5+0+5+2.5+2.5
370%
2.1
Poll Average
3
3
20%
0.6
Partisan leaning
PVI: +5 GOP;
Bean 52-48 in 2004
-0.5
7%
0.04
Money advantage
4.59:1 Bean
4.59
2%
0.09
Statewide incumbent approval
Blagojevich 44-52
-8
1%
0.08
Other issues
County club GOP support (+1); loss of union support (-2)
-0.5

0.5


Bean will win by 2.11%

Other House races:

District 1: Bobby Rush (inc) vs. Jason Tabour
District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. (inc) vs. Robert Belin vs. Anthony William
District 3: Daniel Lipinski (inc) vs. Ray Wardingley
District 4: Luis Gutierrez (inc) vs. Ann Melichar
District 5: Rahm Emanuel (inc) vs. Kevin White
District 7: Danny Davis (inc) vs. Charles Hutchinson
District 9: Jan Schakowsky (inc) vs. Michael ShannonDistrict 10: Mark Kirk (inc) vs. Daniel Seals
District 11: Jerry Weller (inc) vs. John Pavich vs. Jamie Mock
District 12: Jerry Costello (inc) - unopposed
District 13: Judy Biggert (inc) vs. Joseph Shannon
District 14: Dennis Hastert (inc) vs. John Laesch
District 15: Tim Johnson (inc) vs. David Gill
District 16: Donald Manzullo (inc) vs. Richard Auman
District 17: Phil Hare vs. Andrea Zinga
District 18: Ray Lahood (inc) vs. Steve Waterworth vs. Richard Rawlings
District 19: John Shimkus (inc) vs. Danny Stover
Current Office Holders
Governor: Rod Blagojevich - 1st term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 44%)
Lieutenant Governor: Pat Quinn - 1st term, tied to governor

U.S. Senior Senator: Richard Durbin - 2nd term, up for reelection in 2008 (Approval: 49%)
U.S. Junior Senator: Barack Obama - 1st term, up for reelection in 2010 (Approval: 73%)

House District 1: Bobby Rush - 7th term
House District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. - 6th term
House District 3: Daniel Lipinski - 1st term
House District 4: Luis Gutierrez - 7th term
House District 5: Rahm Emanuel - 2nd term
House District 6: Henry Hyde - 16th term (retiring)
House District 7: Danny Davis - 5th term
House District 8: Melissa Bean - 1st term
House District 9: Jan Schakowsky - 4th term
House District 10: Mark Steven Kirk - 3rd term
House District 11: Jerry Weller - 6th term
House District 12: Jerry Costello - 10th term
House District 13: Judy Biggert - 4th term
House District 14: Dennis Hastert - 10th term
House District 15: Tim Johnson - 3rd term
House District 16: Donald Manzullo - 7th term
House District 17: Lane Evans - 12th term (retiring)
House District 18: Ray Lahood - 6th term
House District 19: John Shimkus - 5th term
Current political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 DEM
U.S. House: 10 DEM, 9 GOP

Governor: DEM
Lieutenant Governor: DEM
State Senate: DEM control (31 DEM, 27 GOP, 1 IND)
State House: DEM control (65 DEM, 53 GOP)
Party Color Codes
Blue - Democrat
Red - Republican
Purple - Independent
Yellow - Libertarian
Green - Green
Orange - Constitution
Magenta - Marijuana
Please don't pronounce the "s"!

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