Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Deep in the Red of Texas


Texas is the 10th most Republican state, voting 20.8% more GOP than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Texas is Steady.
Governor: This will probably be the most interesting race of the year. Budget woes, battles over school financing reform, and a contentious redistricting battle dropped Rick Perry's (R) approval ratings to 38% near the end of the 2005 legislative session but rebounded, largely due to his response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Republican State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, a bitter political enemy of Perry, was expected to wage a primary challenge. However, according to recent news, Strayhorn will run as an independent, like the Jewish Cowboy Kinky Friedman, who has had remarkable success as of late. Former Congressman Chris Bell is the Democrat nominee.

Margin of last three polls* (averaged): 14.25 x 0.75 = 10.69
Survey USA: 39-15-25-16 (24 – 10 = 14)
Rasmussen: 40-17-19-15 (23 – 8.5 = 14.5)

Net approval (Survey USA): 2 x 0.15 = 0.3
State partisan leaning (38-31 GOP): 7 x 0.1 = 0.7

Perry will win by 11.69%

*Due to the presence of two significant Independent candidates on the ballot here, I am factoring their polling into this formula, by subtracting a quarter of the combined Strayhorn-Friedman numbers from the Perry-Bell difference. For example, the Survey USA poll has Strayhorn at 25% and Friedman at 16%, resulting in a combined 41%. Subtracting a quarter of this total (10) from the Perry-Bell difference (24) gives 14. (And FYI, the number order is Perry-Bell-Strayhorn-Friedman.)
Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will easily win reelection.

Margin of last three polls (averaged): 39 x 0.75 = 29.25
Rasmussen: 64-25 Hutchison (+39)

Net approval (Survey USA 57-31): 26 x 0.1 = 2.6
State partisan leaning (38-31 GOP): 7 x 0.8 = 0.56
Ratio of money advantage (7:1 Hutchison): 35 x 0.05 = 1.75
Bush net approval (Survey USA 42-56): -14 x 0.02 = 0.28

Hutchison will win by 33.88%
House: District 1: Prior to the 2003 redistricting all three seats which represented the current TX-1 had been held by Democrats for at least 12 years. Louis Gohmert (R) won the seat but received 7% less than President Bush in the same region. Bush's presence on the ballot was the only reason Gohmert won. Roger Owen (D) may win the district, and Donald Perkison (L) is also in the running. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

District 2: Ted Poe (R) unseated Nick Lampson (D) after the mid-decade redistricting got him 55% of the vote in this competitive district, and will face a challenge from Gary Binderim (D), who has criticized Poe for his party-line votes. Poe also refused to turn in money he received from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Justo Perez (L) is also in the running. WEAK GOP HOLD

District 10: Michael McCaul (R) will face a unique and tough race this year in his district, which stretches from Austin to Houston. His main challenger is 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik, in addition to Ted Ankrum (D). WEAK GOP HOLD

District 17: Chet Edwards, the only Democrat to survive the Tom DeLay redistricting scheme, will probably keep his seat again, as he has enough Republican support to withstand any GOP challenger; this year it is Van Taylor (R). Also in the running is Guillermo Acosta (L). VERY, VERY WEAK DEM HOLD

District 22: Tom DeLay (R), under indictment on state and federal charges, will resign his seat in May. Nick Lampson (D), a formidable opponent who was ousted in the redistricting, is in the running, as is ex-Republican Steve Stockman (I). Lampson is less likely to win now than against DeLay, but there may be factors working in Lampson's favor. For one, he is well-known and liked in the district (which contains parts of his old district). The lingering resentment over DeLay and the GOP may also work to Lampson's advantage. Stockman could also draw voters that would otherwise vote Republican. Due to the rightward tendencies of this district, the district will likely remain Republican. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

Other House races:

District 3: Sam Johnson (R-inc) vs. Dan Dodd (D) vs. Christopher Claytor (L)
District 4: Ralph Hall (R-inc) vs. Glenn Melancon (D) vs. Kurt Helm (L)
District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R-inc) vs. Charlie Thompson (D) vs. Mike Nelson (L)
District 6: Joe Barton (R-inc) vs. David Harris (D) vs. Carl Nulsen (L)
District 7: John Culberson (R-inc) vs. Jim Henley (D) vs. Drew Parks (L)
District 8: Kevin Brady (R-inc) vs. Jim Wright (D) vs. J. Michael McLauchlan (L)
District 9: Al Green (D-inc) - unopposed
District 11: K. Michael Conaway (R-inc) - unopposed
District 12: Kay Granger (R-inc) vs. John Morris (D) vs. Garder Osborne (L)
District 13: William "Mac" Thornberry (R-inc) vs. Roger J. Waun (D) vs. Ian Thompson (L)
District 14: Ronald Paul (R-inc) vs. Shane Sklar (D) vs. Eugene J. Flynn (L)
District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D-inc) vs. Paul Haring (R) vs. Alex Bischoff (L)
District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D-inc) vs. Gordon R. Strickland (L)
District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D-inc) vs. Ahmad Hassan (R) vs. Patrick Warren (L)
District 19: Randy Neugebaeur (R-inc) vs. Robert Ricketts (D) vs. Fred Jones (L)
District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D-inc) - unopposed
District 21: Lamar Smith (R-inc) vs. John Courage (D) vs. James Arthur Strohm (L)
District 23: Henry Bonilla (R-inc) vs. Rick Bolaños (D) vs. Cecil H. Lamb (L)
District 24: Kenny Marchant (R-inc) vs. Gary Page (D) vs. Mark Frohman (L)
District 25: Lloyd Doggett (D-inc) vs. Grant Rostig (L)
District 26: Michael Burgess (R-inc) vs. Tim Barnwell (D) vs. Rich Haas (L)
District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D-inc) vs. Willie Vaden (R) vs. Robert Powell (L)
District 28: Henry Cuellar (D-inc) vs. Glenda B. Moyes (L)
District 29: Gene Green (D-inc) vs. Eric Story (R) vs. Clifford Lee Messina (L)
District 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-inc) vs. Wilson Aurbach (R) vs. Ken Ashby (L)
District 31: John Carter (R-inc) vs. Mary Beth Harrell (D) vs. Matt McAdoo (L)
District 32: Pete Sessions (R-inc) vs. Will Pryor (D) vs. Philip Scheps (I)

Current Office Holders
Governor: Rick Perry (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 47%)
Lieutenant Governor: David Dewhurst (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2006

U.S. Senior Senator: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) – 2nd term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 57%)
U.S. Junior Senator: John Cornyn (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2008 (Approval: 41%) *Note: 21% are undecided

House District 1: Louis Gohmert Jr. (R) – 1st term
House District 2: Lloyd Poe (R) – 1st term
House District 3: Sam Johnson (R) – 8th term
House District 4: Ralph Hall (R) – 13th term
House District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R) – 2nd term
House District 6: Joe Barton (R) – 11th term
House District 7: John Culberson (R) – 3rd term
House District 8: Kevin Brady (R) – 5th term
House District 9: Al Green (D) – 1st term
House District 10: Michael McCaul (R) – 1st term
House District 11: K. Michael Conaway (R) – 1st term
House District 12: Kay Granger (R) – 5th term
House District 13: William Thornberry (R) – 6th term
House District 14: Ronald Paul (R) – 8th term
House District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D) – 5th term
House District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D) – 5th term
House District 17: Chet Edwards (D) – 8th term
House District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D) – 6th term
House District 19: Randy Neugebaeur (R) – 2nd term
House District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D) – 4th term
House District 21: Lamar Smith (R) – 10th term
House District 22: Tom DeLay (R) – 11th term (resigning)
House District 23: Henry Bonilla (R) – 7th term
House District 24: Kenny Marchant (R) – 1st term
House District 25: Lloyd Doggett (D) – 6th term
House District 26: Michael Burgess (R) – 2nd term
House District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D) – 12th term
House District 28: Henry Cuellar (D) – 1st term
House District 29: Gene Green (D) – 7th term
House District 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) – 7th term
House District 31: John Carter (R) – 2nd term
House District 32: Pete Sessions (R) – 5th term

Current political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 GOP
U.S. House: 21 GOP, 11 DEM

Governor: GOP
Lieutenant Governor: GOP
State Senate: GOP control (19 GOP, 12 DEM)
State House: GOP control (83 GOP, 63 DEM, 1 vacant)

Party Color Codes
Blue - Democrat
Red - Republican
Purple - Independent
Yellow - Libertarian
Green - Green
Teal - Socialist
Orange - Constitution

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