Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Deep in the Red of Texas

TEXAS – THE LONE STAR STATE

Texas is the 10th most Republican state, voting 20.8% more GOP than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Texas is Steady.
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Governor: This will probably be the most interesting race of the year. Budget woes, battles over school financing reform, and a contentious redistricting battle dropped Rick Perry's (R) approval ratings to 38% near the end of the 2005 legislative session but rebounded, largely due to his response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Republican State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, a bitter political enemy of Perry, was expected to wage a primary challenge. However, according to recent news, Strayhorn will run as an independent, like the Jewish Cowboy Kinky Friedman, who has had remarkable success as of late. Former Congressman Chris Bell is the Democrat nominee.

Margin of last three polls* (averaged): 14.25 x 0.75 = 10.69
Survey USA: 39-15-25-16 (24 – 10 = 14)
Rasmussen: 40-17-19-15 (23 – 8.5 = 14.5)

Net approval (Survey USA): 2 x 0.15 = 0.3
State partisan leaning (38-31 GOP): 7 x 0.1 = 0.7

Perry will win by 11.69%

*Due to the presence of two significant Independent candidates on the ballot here, I am factoring their polling into this formula, by subtracting a quarter of the combined Strayhorn-Friedman numbers from the Perry-Bell difference. For example, the Survey USA poll has Strayhorn at 25% and Friedman at 16%, resulting in a combined 41%. Subtracting a quarter of this total (10) from the Perry-Bell difference (24) gives 14. (And FYI, the number order is Perry-Bell-Strayhorn-Friedman.)
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Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will easily win reelection.

Margin of last three polls (averaged): 39 x 0.75 = 29.25
Rasmussen: 64-25 Hutchison (+39)

Net approval (Survey USA 57-31): 26 x 0.1 = 2.6
State partisan leaning (38-31 GOP): 7 x 0.8 = 0.56
Ratio of money advantage (7:1 Hutchison): 35 x 0.05 = 1.75
Bush net approval (Survey USA 42-56): -14 x 0.02 = 0.28

Hutchison will win by 33.88%
________________________________________________________
House: District 1: Prior to the 2003 redistricting all three seats which represented the current TX-1 had been held by Democrats for at least 12 years. Louis Gohmert (R) won the seat but received 7% less than President Bush in the same region. Bush's presence on the ballot was the only reason Gohmert won. Roger Owen (D) may win the district, and Donald Perkison (L) is also in the running. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

District 2: Ted Poe (R) unseated Nick Lampson (D) after the mid-decade redistricting got him 55% of the vote in this competitive district, and will face a challenge from Gary Binderim (D), who has criticized Poe for his party-line votes. Poe also refused to turn in money he received from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Justo Perez (L) is also in the running. WEAK GOP HOLD

District 10: Michael McCaul (R) will face a unique and tough race this year in his district, which stretches from Austin to Houston. His main challenger is 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik, in addition to Ted Ankrum (D). WEAK GOP HOLD

District 17: Chet Edwards, the only Democrat to survive the Tom DeLay redistricting scheme, will probably keep his seat again, as he has enough Republican support to withstand any GOP challenger; this year it is Van Taylor (R). Also in the running is Guillermo Acosta (L). VERY, VERY WEAK DEM HOLD

District 22: Tom DeLay (R), under indictment on state and federal charges, will resign his seat in May. Nick Lampson (D), a formidable opponent who was ousted in the redistricting, is in the running, as is ex-Republican Steve Stockman (I). Lampson is less likely to win now than against DeLay, but there may be factors working in Lampson's favor. For one, he is well-known and liked in the district (which contains parts of his old district). The lingering resentment over DeLay and the GOP may also work to Lampson's advantage. Stockman could also draw voters that would otherwise vote Republican. Due to the rightward tendencies of this district, the district will likely remain Republican. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

Other House races:

District 3: Sam Johnson (R-inc) vs. Dan Dodd (D) vs. Christopher Claytor (L)
District 4: Ralph Hall (R-inc) vs. Glenn Melancon (D) vs. Kurt Helm (L)
District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R-inc) vs. Charlie Thompson (D) vs. Mike Nelson (L)
District 6: Joe Barton (R-inc) vs. David Harris (D) vs. Carl Nulsen (L)
District 7: John Culberson (R-inc) vs. Jim Henley (D) vs. Drew Parks (L)
District 8: Kevin Brady (R-inc) vs. Jim Wright (D) vs. J. Michael McLauchlan (L)
District 9: Al Green (D-inc) - unopposed
District 11: K. Michael Conaway (R-inc) - unopposed
District 12: Kay Granger (R-inc) vs. John Morris (D) vs. Garder Osborne (L)
District 13: William "Mac" Thornberry (R-inc) vs. Roger J. Waun (D) vs. Ian Thompson (L)
District 14: Ronald Paul (R-inc) vs. Shane Sklar (D) vs. Eugene J. Flynn (L)
District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D-inc) vs. Paul Haring (R) vs. Alex Bischoff (L)
District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D-inc) vs. Gordon R. Strickland (L)
District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D-inc) vs. Ahmad Hassan (R) vs. Patrick Warren (L)
District 19: Randy Neugebaeur (R-inc) vs. Robert Ricketts (D) vs. Fred Jones (L)
District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D-inc) - unopposed
District 21: Lamar Smith (R-inc) vs. John Courage (D) vs. James Arthur Strohm (L)
District 23: Henry Bonilla (R-inc) vs. Rick BolaƱos (D) vs. Cecil H. Lamb (L)
District 24: Kenny Marchant (R-inc) vs. Gary Page (D) vs. Mark Frohman (L)
District 25: Lloyd Doggett (D-inc) vs. Grant Rostig (L)
District 26: Michael Burgess (R-inc) vs. Tim Barnwell (D) vs. Rich Haas (L)
District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D-inc) vs. Willie Vaden (R) vs. Robert Powell (L)
District 28: Henry Cuellar (D-inc) vs. Glenda B. Moyes (L)
District 29: Gene Green (D-inc) vs. Eric Story (R) vs. Clifford Lee Messina (L)
District 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-inc) vs. Wilson Aurbach (R) vs. Ken Ashby (L)
District 31: John Carter (R-inc) vs. Mary Beth Harrell (D) vs. Matt McAdoo (L)
District 32: Pete Sessions (R-inc) vs. Will Pryor (D) vs. Philip Scheps (I)

Current Office Holders
Governor: Rick Perry (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 47%)
Lieutenant Governor: David Dewhurst (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2006

U.S. Senior Senator: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) – 2nd term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 57%)
U.S. Junior Senator: John Cornyn (R) – 1st term, up for reelection in 2008 (Approval: 41%) *Note: 21% are undecided

House District 1: Louis Gohmert Jr. (R) – 1st term
House District 2: Lloyd Poe (R) – 1st term
House District 3: Sam Johnson (R) – 8th term
House District 4: Ralph Hall (R) – 13th term
House District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R) – 2nd term
House District 6: Joe Barton (R) – 11th term
House District 7: John Culberson (R) – 3rd term
House District 8: Kevin Brady (R) – 5th term
House District 9: Al Green (D) – 1st term
House District 10: Michael McCaul (R) – 1st term
House District 11: K. Michael Conaway (R) – 1st term
House District 12: Kay Granger (R) – 5th term
House District 13: William Thornberry (R) – 6th term
House District 14: Ronald Paul (R) – 8th term
House District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D) – 5th term
House District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D) – 5th term
House District 17: Chet Edwards (D) – 8th term
House District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D) – 6th term
House District 19: Randy Neugebaeur (R) – 2nd term
House District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D) – 4th term
House District 21: Lamar Smith (R) – 10th term
House District 22: Tom DeLay (R) – 11th term (resigning)
House District 23: Henry Bonilla (R) – 7th term
House District 24: Kenny Marchant (R) – 1st term
House District 25: Lloyd Doggett (D) – 6th term
House District 26: Michael Burgess (R) – 2nd term
House District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D) – 12th term
House District 28: Henry Cuellar (D) – 1st term
House District 29: Gene Green (D) – 7th term
House District 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) – 7th term
House District 31: John Carter (R) – 2nd term
House District 32: Pete Sessions (R) – 5th term

Current political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 GOP
U.S. House: 21 GOP, 11 DEM

Governor: GOP
Lieutenant Governor: GOP
State Senate: GOP control (19 GOP, 12 DEM)
State House: GOP control (83 GOP, 63 DEM, 1 vacant)

Party Color Codes
Blue - Democrat
Red - Republican
Purple - Independent
Yellow - Libertarian
Green - Green
Teal - Socialist
Orange - Constitution

Monday, January 9, 2006

Illinois - Land of Lincoln (who would likely be happier with the state's new U.S. Senator than his own party)

ILLINOIS - THE PRAIRIE STATE

Illinois is the 8th most Democratic state, voting 12.1% more Dem than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Illinois is trending Democrat.

Governor: Rod Blagojevich is running for reelection. While Illinois is solidly blue, Blagojevich may not be safe, as his approval ratings are down and he has been accused of corruption. Challenging him is State Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka. Blago currently leads Topinka, but will be watched closely, as Topinka is part of that increasingly endangered species Republicanus Noncrazius.

Other Candidates
Randy Stufflebeam
Rich Whitney
Scott Summers

Governor (incumbent running)

Polling Company
Date
Blagojevich
TopinkaMargin
Chicago Tribune
9/7-10
45%
33%
12%
Rasmussen
9/7
48%
36%
12%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Poll Average
12 + 12
12
75%
9
Approval
44-52
-8
15%
1.2
Partisan leaning
42-24 DEM
-18
10%
1.8


Blagojevich will win by 9.6%

Senate: Senior Senator Dick Durbin is up for reelection in 2008 and junior Senator Barack Obama is up for reelection in 2010.
House: District 6: Henry Hyde is retiring. Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth has won the Dem nomination; on the GOP side is State Sen. Peter Roskam. This district in the western Chicago burbs has been trending less Republican in recent years. Also in the running is Brian Costin.

House (open seat)

Pundit
Prediction
Numerical Value
Charlie Cook
Toss-Up
0
Larry Sabato
Toss-Up
0
Cong Quarterly
Toss-Up
0
Election Predictions
Very Weak GOP
2.5
Blue In Texas
Very Weak GOP
2.5

Polling Company
Date
Duckworth
Roskam
Margin
Constituent Dynamics
8/27-29
47%
46%
1%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Pundit Average
(one poll)
0+0+0+2.5+2.5
170%
0.7
Poll Average
-1
-1
20%
0.2
Partisan leaning
PVI: +3 GOP
3
7%
0.21
Money advantage
1.49:1 Roskam
1.49
2%
0.03
Statewide incumbent approval
Blagojevich 44-52
-8
1%
0.08
Other issues
None





Roskam will win by 0.82%

District 8: This is the race to watch in Illinois, with a highly Republican district represented by a Democrat, Melissa Bean, who won only because of her unpopular, geriatric predecessor Phil Crane. Her vote for CAFTA may also hurt, as the unions are rallying behind Bill Scheurer. However, there are some things that may help her: the incumbent factor, Bush's abysmal poll numbers in Illinois, and her incredible fundraising. David McSweeny was neck-and-neck with Bean in funds, but spent a lot of it in the crowded primary. Bean also has support from most of the country club Republicans in the district as well as an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.

House (incumbent running)

Pundit
Prediction
Numerical Value
Charlie Cook
Lean DEM
5
Larry Sabato
Toss-Up
0
Cong Quarterly
Lean DEM
5
Election Predictions
Very Weak DEM
2.5
Blue In Texas
Very Weak DEM
2.5

Polling Company
Date
Bean
McSweeny
Margin
Constituent Dynamics
8/27-29
48%
45%
3%

Factor
Numbers
Raw Value
Weight
Factor
Pundit Average
(one poll)
5+0+5+2.5+2.5
370%
2.1
Poll Average
3
3
20%
0.6
Partisan leaning
PVI: +5 GOP;
Bean 52-48 in 2004
-0.5
7%
0.04
Money advantage
4.59:1 Bean
4.59
2%
0.09
Statewide incumbent approval
Blagojevich 44-52
-8
1%
0.08
Other issues
County club GOP support (+1); loss of union support (-2)
-0.5

0.5


Bean will win by 2.11%

Other House races:

District 1: Bobby Rush (inc) vs. Jason Tabour
District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. (inc) vs. Robert Belin vs. Anthony William
District 3: Daniel Lipinski (inc) vs. Ray Wardingley
District 4: Luis Gutierrez (inc) vs. Ann Melichar
District 5: Rahm Emanuel (inc) vs. Kevin White
District 7: Danny Davis (inc) vs. Charles Hutchinson
District 9: Jan Schakowsky (inc) vs. Michael ShannonDistrict 10: Mark Kirk (inc) vs. Daniel Seals
District 11: Jerry Weller (inc) vs. John Pavich vs. Jamie Mock
District 12: Jerry Costello (inc) - unopposed
District 13: Judy Biggert (inc) vs. Joseph Shannon
District 14: Dennis Hastert (inc) vs. John Laesch
District 15: Tim Johnson (inc) vs. David Gill
District 16: Donald Manzullo (inc) vs. Richard Auman
District 17: Phil Hare vs. Andrea Zinga
District 18: Ray Lahood (inc) vs. Steve Waterworth vs. Richard Rawlings
District 19: John Shimkus (inc) vs. Danny Stover
Current Office Holders
Governor: Rod Blagojevich - 1st term, up for reelection in 2006 (Approval: 44%)
Lieutenant Governor: Pat Quinn - 1st term, tied to governor

U.S. Senior Senator: Richard Durbin - 2nd term, up for reelection in 2008 (Approval: 49%)
U.S. Junior Senator: Barack Obama - 1st term, up for reelection in 2010 (Approval: 73%)

House District 1: Bobby Rush - 7th term
House District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. - 6th term
House District 3: Daniel Lipinski - 1st term
House District 4: Luis Gutierrez - 7th term
House District 5: Rahm Emanuel - 2nd term
House District 6: Henry Hyde - 16th term (retiring)
House District 7: Danny Davis - 5th term
House District 8: Melissa Bean - 1st term
House District 9: Jan Schakowsky - 4th term
House District 10: Mark Steven Kirk - 3rd term
House District 11: Jerry Weller - 6th term
House District 12: Jerry Costello - 10th term
House District 13: Judy Biggert - 4th term
House District 14: Dennis Hastert - 10th term
House District 15: Tim Johnson - 3rd term
House District 16: Donald Manzullo - 7th term
House District 17: Lane Evans - 12th term (retiring)
House District 18: Ray Lahood - 6th term
House District 19: John Shimkus - 5th term
Current political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 DEM
U.S. House: 10 DEM, 9 GOP

Governor: DEM
Lieutenant Governor: DEM
State Senate: DEM control (31 DEM, 27 GOP, 1 IND)
State House: DEM control (65 DEM, 53 GOP)
Party Color Codes
Blue - Democrat
Red - Republican
Purple - Independent
Yellow - Libertarian
Green - Green
Orange - Constitution
Magenta - Marijuana
Please don't pronounce the "s"!